Curse

dasmitchies · Dec 17, 2008, 06:25 AM // 06:25

I keep hearing opinion's on people wanting to change PVE to suit their moral compass. Yes, for those of you who complain, you do so for the fact you want the rest of the world to conform to your viewpoint. That is a moral bias. Applying that to a game is hilarious. Let me educate you as to why complaints and the associated nerfs cause decreased prices for elite items.

First you must understand economic basics. These translate surprisingly well to MMO player economies. Supply and demand balance via the local currency very quickly. Adjustments to these factors can happen in a matter of hours in an electronic game world. Supply is what is available and demand is what is wanted. Example: feathers were worthless prior to essence of celerity. After the introduction of a highly desirable effect prices shot up for a basic crafting material due to the wide us of this item. Understand?

I know this seems arrogant but follow me here. Tracking the cost of ectos AND armbraces is the quickest way to watch the economy and the impact of the environment quickly. Make no mistake ANET tries to watch these things and fails with their responses. Watching the trader for ecto prices and messages in Spammadan can quickly give us this information as well. Ecto prices have steadily declined due to less active players (demand) over a 2 year period. Sometimes this slide levels due to environment changes. However, anyone who has been playing during this time has noticed this. Armbraces have held steady in total cost at first glance. The cost was high when NF first dropped but decreased as more people reached the endgame. This is normal economic behavior. More player capable of entering the elite area makes the cost of associated items drop to the point where skill and determination determine activity UNLESS there is a drop in demand. With the intorduction of torment items in HOM the price of armbraces spiked and held the new prices for a while. However, declining interest and population contraction causes the price of armbraces to fall alongside that of ectos.

What has been written above is basic and most who will read this thread will understand the information. The wild card in a artificial environment like GW is the changes introduced by developers. The consequences are far more reaching than changing YOUR immediate game. Whenever there is a nerf, a few players give up on their aspirations for the game and quit. They may still play a little here and there, but they no longer seek to fill their HOM or get elite items. This would not be a problem but ANET is not getting many new players to fill their economic shoes. The basic view is whenever we lose a player who contributes to the game economy, the econom y CONTRACTS causing supply to be a tiny bit larger than demand. 1 player dosn't make a difference, but 100 do.

Some examples, Ursan drove the prices of ectos down to 3.5k at one point due to overfarming and massive elite area activity. Those who had stockpiled ectos (the wealthy) cried and complained for a nerf so other would not be as elite as they. When Anet did so the price of ectos went to 5.5k at the trader and leveled off. However, the demand for elite skins dropped as well as many people quit. Why? When the demands on their time to complete the HOM for GW2 became harder the reason for wanting the wealth wasn't worth the effort. GW2 is vaporware and HOM is a POTENTIAL benefit. Without concrete evidence of GW2 existing and the benefits of HOM the need for every armor and title no longer has meaning. Leet skins mean nothing to gamers who don't play. The intention was to cause prices to rise , but diminishing supply is balanced be decreasing demand.

UW brought many ectos into the enviroment soon after as solo Sin farming and speedclear became the next farm. Prices did NOT fall during this time as active player saw an opportunity to grind gold to fill their halls. Ecto prices hovered at 5.5k. Like the Ursans before them , Permas were not the only people to benefit form the spike in economic activity. Less complex farms were still viable due to the increased demand for crafting materials. Speedclear needs cons and those groups won't gonna drop speeclear to farm those materials. Speedclear groups were buying elite skins and crafing materials for armors because they could afford to do so. Farming tengu outside lion's arch takes only minutes, but the demand for feathers means even a noob can farm something that has value. EVERYBODY becomes involved in the economy at large. Demand goes up as well as supply but everybody is moving to a larger goal.

Now speedclear is nerfed. Many who did speedclear to fill HOM and afford the titles see no point in trying anymore. GW2 is vaporware. HOM has no definable benefit. Farming 30 hours a week isn't worth it. The immediate effect 12 hours after the nerf? Ectos dropped 500g .

Why is this important? ANET set the goals for PVE. When a farm opens that can generate larger than normal financial returns erupts the economy gets better as more people feel they can meet the goals of the PVE metagame (HOM). When a farm is closed many simply don't see the point anymore and leave (sometimes in droves) because this is a GAME. If there is no fun why play? If I can't fill my HOM for a possible sequel without spending a year to do so what is the point? HOM isn't worth having an online second job to casual gamers. Hardcore types will persist but who will they sell their high end items too?

Community size is most important to ANET. Gaining new customers for GW is not going so well and if they are to open GW2 they need a vibrant base of players to create the new community, which attracts new gamers etc. Supply and demand are the only goals left in PVE GW. Whenever ANET screw with this, Nerfs, they cause people to leave. Good riddins? Whta are the chances of a GW2 releaseif GW is a ghost town before development is beyond the point of no return? Do you really believe the masters of Anet will fund development if they don't envision success? Real world business is driven by money. The funny thing is we are seeing a correlation between a fake economy and a real business model in real life.

Anet failed to release expansions of content for PVE along their stated intentions. When the metagame became so complex they wanted a reboot to make their development lives easier. The alluded to GW2 (vaporware) and created HOM to try and keep as many PVE folks interested for as long as possible so they could develop GW2 with a built in fanbase to lessen the potential for failure on release. A good plan, but horrible implementation

In conclusion, every nerf lessens demand for goods and services inside Gw as the investment capital (farming) is less available. Furthering eroding the crumbling economy is the exodus of economic activity due to the grind being less relevant when the difficulty of achieving goals is deemed less valuable than time spent by individual players. Don't believe that the potential for economic activity is greater than we currently see? Watch wintersday and the demand on the servers. There is the proof of potential.

Solutions? Those who qq quit whining. Your ectos are worth less due to lessened demand, not overfarming. UNDERFARMING is killing us. ANet you better stop killing farms and show some real evidence on GW2. As long as GW2 is vaporware HOM is not worth effort and people will continue to leave GW. Killing the favored farming builds is having a detrimental effect to those who choose to stay active. ANET is not replacing these builds with other alternatives so why stay? The PVE enviroment may not be what ANET envisioned, but it is what it is and better than nothing.

Let the flamers begin.

zelgadissan · Dec 17, 2008, 06:48 AM // 06:48

tl;dr version - PvE has nothing left but farming and if you don't farm moar ectos GW2 will never exist.

If that's seriously how you look at it then I suggest you relook your own views on the community instead of laughing at us and saying that we have a moral bias. God forbid people play GW because they enjoy the actual game.

If people leave because Ursan or Shadow Form or whatever they farm with gets nerfed, not only were they not enjoying the actual game in the first place, but they clearly wasted their money on getting the game because last I checked this isn't Harvest Moon. Farming in itself is fine, but when you start saying that the entire future of GW2 is based on buffing Shadow Form back up for UWSC, you've taken it to ridiculous proportions.

More to say but I'm tired now, maybe more tomorrow.

Felixious · Dec 17, 2008, 06:56 AM // 06:56

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasmitchies

Ectos dropped 500g.

Oh non. What to do? La vie n'a pas de sens!

It's a game, who cares about the economy in a game? >.>

cognophile · Dec 17, 2008, 07:12 AM // 07:12

Here's another possible theory to explain the fluctuation in ecto supply/demand. Maybe a bunch of people recently quit doing UWSC and cashed out a few hoarded ectos.

Rhamia Darigaz · Dec 17, 2008, 07:12 AM // 07:12

lol, OP just made my day.
7/10, would have raged if i wasn't already laughing.

Riman · Dec 17, 2008, 07:26 AM // 07:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by Felixious

It's a game, who cares about the economy in a game? >.>

Just anyone, who likes the game and understands how crucial the economy is to it; how big a part it plays in keeping people interested and playing. Bad economy = few people = dead game. If you care about the game, you care about the economy, it's as simple as that - yes, pvp'ers included.. without pve people making the jump to pvp, there's no fresh blood for pvp and pvp gets stagnant, so yeah.. the economy affects them, too.

To the OP - personally I regard the farm nerfs as signs of GW2 being post-poned. Anet obviously wants to keep their customers until GW2 hits the shores, but since HOM is the only way to do that, they try to balance out the time it takes to fill it with their development efforts for GW2. A simple illustration of this - GW2 will take us (anet).. say, another 2 months. People will at the current rate fill their HOM in approximately the same time (don't take these numbers seriously, I know it takes longer.. just arguing here) with a farm that has emerged. We hit a roadblock.. something gets in the way and we see that it will take us 6 months instead of 2 to get GW2 out. We start sweating - obviously. What is the player going to do once he has filled his HOM? Probably grow bored and quit. He's certainly not going to vq everything again on another char! So, how do we keep him from leaving? Well, we could start by making it take longer to fill that HOM..

Do you see, where I'm going with this?

dasmitchies · Dec 17, 2008, 07:29 AM // 07:29

You are missing the point. Enjoy the game. I do. Play with friends and help guildies. I do. Try theme builds instead of trying to play for overpower. I do. But we must realise that a large part of the community is trying to achieve Anet's stated PVE goals. If that becomes harder many do stop. Economy matters because eventually less people will cause the servers to close. Look at ANET's motivation, if GW doesn't feed GW2 there is no reason to maintain the client. There is no fee for play. ANET is banking on GW2 to be profitable. Every player who quits is a potential customer who will get hooked on another game and not buy GW2. Most of us are intelligent people. Look past the obvious kneejerk reactions and try to see the total picture. Killing off players makes the game less relevant to maintain. WOW feeds these very ideals by making good gear essential for more difficult areas. THAT is why it is successfull. Withoput similar motivations GW will not stay around very long and GW2 will die before it gets out of developement. Saying other player's motivations is junk is making YOUR motivations junk. C'mon people you think better than just flaming.

dasmitchies · Dec 17, 2008, 07:36 AM // 07:36

To Riman: I know ANET is trying to lengthen the grind to keep us around. But doing so has largely caused the opposite to happen. New content even in smaller forms has done much better. Tome introduction, Mox quests and rescaling Allegiance titles helped to maintain interest far more than any nerf does. Nerfing is easier though than adding new things. My thread was directectd at ANet as much as the QQr's Not that any of them will listen . ANet's own responses and failures addressing the problems of an eroding player base jsut proves my point. Thanks for making an intelligent response.

zwei2stein · Dec 17, 2008, 08:00 AM // 08:00

Applying 101 Eccon on MMO is pretty bad because there is much more beyond Supply & Demand theory; framework that supports it in RL is absent in MMOs. High-impact things.

Sirds · Dec 17, 2008, 09:26 AM // 09:26

Great post Op!

Just one moment, instead of nerfing something developer need to add new money(ecto) sink in game. Becouse, do nerfing and you will see many unhappy players(customers), but add more possibilities where player can spend theyr gold, this rise more interest to play.

Yes, anet time to time add new money sink, but this is not enough IMHO.

Lyynyyrd · Dec 17, 2008, 09:29 AM // 09:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasmitchies

gw2 is vaporware.

:3

finally a suitable post!

Eragon Zarroc · Dec 17, 2008, 09:51 AM // 09:51

some interesting stuff

Kook~NBK~ · Dec 17, 2008, 10:34 AM // 10:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasmitchies

Your ectos are worth less due to lessened demand, not overfarming. UNDERFARMING is killing us.

Ummm. whut?

All that work shot down with 4 little words...

SkekSister · Dec 17, 2008, 10:51 AM // 10:51

Sadly I am inclined to agree. I've worked in games dev for almost 10 years now and the lack of solid info from Anet regarding GW2 is deeply worrying. In my experience it's almost always because there are serious issues involving it's development normally financial and often terminal.

Edit: I was referring to the vaporware comment ofc.

dasmitchies · Dec 17, 2008, 10:54 AM // 10:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kook~NBK~

Ummm. whut?

All that work shot down with 4 little words...

Read the whole post and figure it out. Underfarming means not enough people to buy ectos. They quit or gave up on FOW get it?

Forgotton200 · Dec 17, 2008, 11:07 AM // 11:07

I didn't read single word you posted but let me guess. It's about the nerf to SF and ecto inflating amirite?

Since you keep saying the same thrash over and over, I'll just quote you with what people already quoted you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Azazel The Assassin

1) I think you are pulling this out of your butt. Stop.

2) Ectos fell in price after the nerf because people thought the price would skyrocket due to becoming harder to get. As such, people bought ectos, raising the price, and when people saw that, dozens upon dozens sold their ectos, ending up making the supply higher.

The real decrease in ectos came from the SF buff, not the nerf.

3) Ursan was like a monkey throwing shit at enemies and killing them from the smell. No game to it. It needed to be nerfed, if people leave just because they can't have their easy button (literally, one button) then they need to grow some balls.

4) "Right now you are witnessing firsthand the decline of a civilization" lmfao. Since when is the GW community a "civilization?"

Then I got bored and stopped looking for more so I'll end it here.

Konig Des Todes · Dec 17, 2008, 11:27 AM // 11:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by dasmitchies

Read the whole post and figure it out. Underfarming means not enough people to buy ectos. They quit or gave up on FOW get it?

I think you have overfarming and underfarming mixed up. Overfarming is when you farm to much, and as such prices decrease because people have the ectos they want - therefore no need to buy them. Along with that, you have horders who horde and horde ectos (among other items) to try to keep prices up. They fail horribly because farming is so easy that no one needs to buy ectos and there is an unlimited supply of all items in GW.

If, and that is a big if, items in GW were at a set number, THEN underfarming might harm us. But as there is an unlimited amount, farming is what hurts the "economy."

dasmitchies · Dec 17, 2008, 11:29 AM // 11:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by Forgotton200

I didn't read single word you posted but let me guess. It's about the nerf to SF and ecto inflating amirite?

Since you keep saying the same thrash over and over, I'll just quote you with what people already quoted you.

Then I got bored and stopped looking for more so I'll end it here.

None of those quotes are in this post. Try reading, i know it's hard but use your words. Ectos are not the only commented on nor are they most important. LMFAO commenting on a post you can't read.

Konig Des Todes · Dec 17, 2008, 11:33 AM // 11:33

Dumbass. He didn't bother reading, not that he couldn't read. And he took that because it's on the same topic. You made this thread in a response to the thread the quote was from. So therefore, your post on the other thread is just a summarized version of this. You expanded, pulling more shit from your ass.

It actually does still fit.

dasmitchies · Dec 17, 2008, 11:35 AM // 11:35

Quote:

Originally Posted by Azazel The Assassin

I think you have overfarming and underfarming mixed up. Overfarming is when you farm to much, and as such prices decrease because people have the ectos they want - therefore no need to buy them. Along with that, you have horders who horde and horde ectos (among other items) to try to keep prices up. They fail horribly because farming is so easy that no one needs to buy ectos and there is an unlimited supply of all items in GW.

If, and that is a big if, items in GW were at a set number, THEN underfarming might harm us. But as there is an unlimited amount, farming is what hurts the "economy."

KK Azrael I am Not flaming u. Your posts are pretty good all over these forums but I meant UNDERFARMING. The technical term is deflation. When there isn't enough money available or demand things drop in price. See current US economy as an example. When farming is nerfed less gold and most importantly less players (the angry ones rage quit) means deflation sets in. Not everyone farmed ectos. I farmed a lot of consets myself. Easier solo runs and bonus runes for guildies use. People do buy ectos constantly. They have to hoard them because of gold caps on storage and trades. that is why following ecto prices is a perfect economic barometer for GW. They have uses, but primarily they are for trading 100k+ items.